Over the past 10 years, the two major global fleets have grown by over 30%

In the past decade, the global fleet of oil tankers and bulk carriers has grown significantly. Ship brokerage firm Xclusiv stated in its latest weekly report that since 2013, the dry bulk carrier and oil tanker fleets have grown by about 36% and 30% respectively. The rapid growth rate is partly due to the delivery of a large number of new ships, and partly due to the delayed scrapping of old tonnage, which has led to a significant aging of the fleet in the past decade.

In 2013, the average age of dry bulk carriers was 9.3 years, with 10% of bulk carriers having an age of over 20 years. During the same period, the average age of the oil tanker fleet was 8.9 years, with 8% of ships being over 20 years old.

By 2018, the average age of dry bulk carriers had slightly increased, rising to 9.6 years, while the growth of oil tankers was more significant, with an average age increase of 1.5 years. But at that time, the number of ships with more than 20 years of experience significantly decreased, with the proportion of dry bulk carriers dropping to 7% (a decrease of nearly 30% compared to 2013) and the proportion of oil tankers dropping to 6% (a decrease of about 25% compared to 2013).

As of September 2023, the average age of dry bulk carriers and oil tanker fleets has increased by 2.6 and 3.6 years respectively compared to 2013, reaching 11.9 and 12.5 years respectively. The proportion of dry bulk carriers and oil tankers with a ship age of over 20 years reached 12% and 13%, respectively. In the dry bulk carrier sector, most of the old ships are agile, large agile, and Panamax ships, with ships over 20 years of age accounting for about 13%. In the oil tanker sector, the average age of MR1 ships is the highest, with 27% of MR1 ships being over 20 years old, followed by VLCC and Suez ships, with 13% and 14% built in 2003 or earlier, respectively.

Over time, the age of oil tankers and dry bulk fleets will increase. Since 2020, the proportion of ships with over 20 years of age in the oil tanker sector has been on the rise. And from 2000 to 2020, this proportion has been declining. Since 2020, the proportion of 20 year old ships in the bulk carrier sector has also shown an increasing trend. From 2001 to 2008, this proportion has been increasing until it began to decline.

In the past three years, the freight rates for oil tankers and bulk carriers have remained relatively high, so many shipowners tend to keep their old ships in order to continue earning meager profits. Since 2023, the scrapped bulk carriers have reached approximately 4 million deadweight tons, 4.3 million deadweight tons in 2022, and 5.21 million deadweight tons in 2021. In the oil tanker sector, only 280000 deadweight tons have been dismantled since 2023, the lowest level since 1970.